“I come home from work, open the door and … nothing. What happened? As we now know, the happiness effect evaporates after a few months. But soon the cheerfulness disappeared, and six months later he was unhappier than ever. For the first few weeks, he beamed with delight.
His dream materialized into a villa with ten rooms, a swimming pool, and an enviable view of the lake and mountains. He calls this “affective forecasting”: our inability to correctly predict our own emotions.Ī friend, a banking executive, whose enormous income was beginning to burn a hole in his pocket, decided to build himself a new home away from the city. So, a little while after you receive the big check, you will be as content or as discontent as you were before. He has studied lottery winners and discovered that the happiness effect fizzles out after a few months. So, moving on to a new area: How well can we predict our feelings? Are we experts on ourselves? Would winning the lottery makes us the happiest people alive for years to come? Harvard psychologies Dan Gilbert says no. We concluded that self-appointed experts are of no more use than a random forecast generator. In chapter 40 (“ False Prophets: Forecast Illusion“), we examined the miserable accuracy of predictions, for example in the fields of politics, economics, and social events. Again, how would you feel, and for how long? Suppose one day the phone rings: An excited voice tells you that you have just scooped the lottery jackpot-$10 million! How would you feel? And how long would you feel like that? Another scenario: The phone rings, and you learn that your best friend has passed away. Be Careful What You Wish For: Hedonic Treadmill
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